Talking Travel Trends: The Holiday Season set for Record Numbers

 

With travel costs dropping, this holiday season is expected to be a landmark one for travel. AAA projects that 98.6 million Americans will journey 50 miles or more from home during the year-end holiday season, a four percent hike over last year. This represents the biggest year-on-year jump in travel and predicts the most travelers for a holiday period since the travel giant started keeping track of such things, all the way back to 2001.

While it is nothing new for travelers to use the holidays as a time to visit family and, this year, a number of factors have industry insiders forecasting big numbers. Notably:

• Low gas prices are triggering more travel with the national average price of gasoline at the lowest level in five years and 69 cents lower than last year.
• The rise in the average Americans’ disposable income 3.5 percent over last year’s levels is prompting more travel.
• Low-cost airlines are driving down prices, with the average discounted round-trip airfares across 40 top domestic routes expected to fall seven percent this year, to $186.

“’Tis the season for holiday travel, and this year more Americans will join with friends and family to celebrate the holidays and ring in the New Year than ever before,” said Marshall L. Doney, AAA president and chief operating officer. “While the economy continues to improve at an uneven pace, it seems more Americans are looking forward with increasing consumer confidence, rather than looking back at the recession. This is helping to drive expected travel volumes to the highest level we have seen for the year-end holidays.”

“Lower gas prices are filling stockings with a little more cash to spend on travel this year as travelers are expected to pay the lowest prices since 2009,” added Doney. “Lower prices are increasing disposable income and enabling families to set aside money for travel this year.”

This year the holiday calendar is also giving travel rates a boost, with both Christmas Day and New Year’s landing on a Thursday, creating an extra-long weekend for many workers. It also creates a holiday travel season that is one day longer than last year’s and the longest since 2008, which gives travelers more options for departures and return trips.

The added flexibility could be a key factor in the choice for many to travel.

TripCase reports that holiday travel trends this holiday season are also surprisingly headed south, with its flight arrival data showing that that the U.S. airports with the highest holiday change of pace actually are in warm weather climates. Hawaii (Kahului, Keohole and Honolulu), Florida (Palm Beach) and California (Palm Springs) all have a greater share of holiday traffic than off-season traffic this year.  JFK International airport, in New York City, is the only one of the top 10 airports in a typically cold weather climate, according to percent of annual traffic occurring during the holidays.

American Express released two different travel lists — one for Christmas and one for New Year’s — that back up TripCase’s assertions.

The Christmas list found that travelers are traveling to mostly warm destinations such as Fort Lauderdale, Kahului and Los Angeles. Florida has five destinations in the top-10 and only New York and Denver are in cold weather climes.

For New Year’s, Fort Lauderdale is at the top with Orlando and Kahului, following. Other destinations include: Salt Lake City, Miami, Los Angeles and Denver.

Hospitality executives are sure going to be happy with the overall numbers for holiday travel:

• Holiday travel is expected to total 98.6 million, an increase of four percent from the 94.8 million who traveled last year.
• Nearly 91 percent of all travelers (89.5 million) will celebrate the holidays with a road trip, an increase of 4.2 percent from 2013.
• Air travel is forecast to grow one percent from 2013, with 5.7 million travelers taking to the skies.

Better still for industry business, AAA is predicting that most hotels are increasing prices and could be on track for record revenue for the holiday season.

According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index, hotel rates for AAA Three Diamond lodgings are expected to increase four percent from one year ago with travelers spending an average of $143 per night compared to $138 last year. The average hotel rate for AAA Two Diamond hotels has risen five percent with an average cost of $108 per night.

The holidays are always the gift-giving time of year, but the booming travel predications are giving hospitality companies the best gift of all — the most travel business in years.